kenya 2017 elections-its a toss up literaly

Kenya will hold a General election in August this year.The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC),has launched a four weeks last mass registration of voters before the election is held.Since  presidential  elections  are  are won or lost based on numbers , in this  project  I am going to analyse these  numbers  and  explore  the likely  scenarios.So lets get the ball rolling!

Sources of data and project questions

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics(KNBS) and National Cohesion and Integration Commission(NCIC),has published reports that contain relevant data.We shall use these data to analyse the  general election.And for our purposes  I  shall answer the following questions:

1.How many Total eligible voters should we expect IEBC to have registered by 14th February 2017?.

2.How many voters are in the Ruling Jubilee party strongholds? .

3.How many voters are CORD in strongholds?.

4.Based on 1 and 2 above, which party has head-start to win the upcoming election?.

5.Based on all the above ,which party is likely win?

I  have  worked on this  in a Jupyter notebook.To view the notebook and the  analysis  with explanatory notes,please click here.The Kenya 2017 General election analysis note book

Points to note:
First the data reveals that Kenya has 42 ethnic groups.Note that the index start from zero through 41 which comes to 42 groups.

Second, I have estimated  the population of Kenya to  be 48.6 million in the year 2017

 

Finally the proportion of the Kenyan population of persons under 19 year of age is 53%.The balance- 47% of the Kenya total population are eligible voters and is the figure we are most interested in our analysis.(KNBS -Kenya facts 2014 report published on its website)

Findings and recommendations.
Kenya will have approximately 22.8 millions eligible voter assuming 100% registration of all people above 18 year of age.

The top ten post populous ethnic groups will account for 91% of votes that will be cast in the election.This is about 20.8 million voters.About 2 million votes will be accounted for by 32 smaller ethnic groups.

Tyranny of numbers in Jubilee strongholds is a lie.Jubilee stronghold has 8.3 million voters.

Perceived CORD strongholds have the numbers advantage with about 10.6 million voters.
Scenarios

The ruling #Jubilee  Party is  likely to win the presidential election if it can grabs a lion’s share of votes in  the so-called smaller ethnic groups like Maasai,Taita,Taveta,Teso,Embu and Tharaka. To strengthen their position they should fight tooth and nail to split the Kisii and Luhya votes with CORD. Also  the party should  pray that CORD continues to pursue its long held ostrich politics.This  would mean lower  voter  turn up  – below 70% in opposition strongholds.This  will guarantee a landslide win for the party  whose  slogan is  # Tuko Pamoja .

CORD coalition is likely to win if it successfully thwarts Jubilee Party efforts to split the Kisii and Luhya votes.Then,once that is accomplished , it should eye for a small percentage of votes from Smaller ethnic groups like Borana,Nubi,Kuria,Mbeere ,Suba and Samburu .To  ensure there is no second round run off elections ,CORD should stop  focusing on crowd at  its  rallies, but craft anew  strategy to get nearly all voters in its  strongholds to register  and give them  an exciting Vision  for them to turn up in large numbers to cast their votes in August.

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